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Patterns in NFL Betting Lines? Michael R. Summers Abstract Las Vegas sports books provide two even-money bets (not counting commission, or "vigorish") regarding National Football League games-the point-spread between each pair of teams and the total number of points scored by each pair of teams (the "over-under").
So what patterns should we consider when betting on football totals? On the internet, you can come across various tips, recommendations, and patterns that apply to football matches. Most of them concern live betting. Zero halftime score. After the 1st halftime, the scoreboard will often show a nil-nil score since at first teams tend to be ...
In order for you to win on a bet of this nature, one team must cover the spread — so if the spread is -7 in favor of the Chiefs over the Steelers, the Chiefs must win by seven points or more. Whereas in order for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must either lose by less than seven points, or win.
The football Martingale betting system can easily be described as one of the most unchallenging betting systems due to the fact that unlike some of the other betting progressions, it does not involve making any complicated calculations. Other than that, the pattern gamblers should follow is very basic, meaning that you are highly unlikely to get confounded.
A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to gambling, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine.
The football betting strategies articles are designed to not only get you acquainted with the latest betting techniques and popular betting types, but also to point out the special features and things you need to pay attention to when taking up one of the new styles of wagering.
The most important thing to remember here is that whenever you produce percentage stats for the 3 outcomes of a football match it must add up to 100%. In this case it’s: 35% + 20% + 45% = 100%. If you want to predict an upcoming fixture based on those percentages, then you convert the % stats into decimal odds.
Every team has little patterns and predictions in how they move about the pitch. This makes it easier for those with an eagle eye to spot problems. And these problems and opportunities then fuel our football prediction betting. Again, we don’t just predict wins based on big odds wins or personal bias. Everything is based on our own game knowledge, the statistics, and the available patterns that show a team struggling or thriving.
A general rule of thumb for NFL betting I go by is to only use 2-5% of my bankroll for each bet. In this example, it would allow us to make $60-$150 wagers on each game we bet. You can use 2% for your smaller plays and 5% for plays you really like.
This is a bankroll management system, rather than strictly a football betting system, but it is something you should definitely consider: The Kelly Criterion. Based on sound money management, the Kelly Criterion is a betting system that implements a calculated method to determine the stake of a bet on an outcome with higher-than-expected odds.